Well, the market is officially at its "uh oh" moment. The S&P finally put in the lower low I was expecting in exactly the time frame predicted in late August. October has historically been a lousy month for the market and the breaking of 1100 should kick off even more significant selling. There could be one more last gasp attempt to elevate back above 1100, since it did not get significantly below (and the VIX has not broken its flag yet). But I don't expect that to occur. Here's why:
The moving averages are now curling downward, 1100 and Fib 38% have been breached (with a big, ugly red candle) and refer to my previous posts for the hideous monthly charts. Add to this, the longest and harshest wave down on my Elliott Wave count is still to come.
If the market is to keep from crashing, buyers will have to step in on the 10/4/11 trading day.
All charts courtesy of
StockCharts.com
Daily chart:
Weekly chart:
Monthly chart:
you weren't kidding about buyers stepping in today. Just the hint of a bank recapitalization sent the market flying eod. I think the HFT's wanted to suck in some new technical shorts and then spit them out in a huge short squeeze. Happened to me, I covered in the buying binge early on. Bulls look to want to defend 1075 on the SNP.
ReplyDeletethinking about putting on my shorts back on soon, I think we get a little more run to the 50 dmn before we run out of steam.
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